Press Release: Defence Investment Plan Failing To Properly Address Emerging National Security Threats

Written By James Meadway

Credit: Reuters

PRESS RELEASE: FOR IMMEDIATE USE

DEFENCE INVESTMENT PLAN FAILING TO PROPERLY ADDRESS EMERGING NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS

NORDIC-STYLE COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY FRAMEWORK NEEDED

TIGHTER CONTROLS AND SUPERVISION OF DEFENCE PROCUREMENT ARE ESSENTIAL TO ENSURE VALUE FOR MONEY

New funding for the Strategic Defence Review, announced today, fails to address the fundamental problems in that document and raises questions of whether the government is facing up to the scale and nature of national security threats to the UK in the decades ahead. Arguments over the size of the funding provided fail to address the deeper question of the purpose of defence policy in a rapidly changing world.

Our long-term national security plans must face the threats posed by ecological security and climate change, which are already impacting food and energy security alike, and whose impacts are sadly all but certain to grow. 

Threats to our critical national infrastructure, in the form of both physical and cyber threats, also loom large, impacting everything from the functioning of the NHS to water provision.

The conflict in Ukraine and in the middle-east has shown the fast-changing nature of weaponry, and the extent to which countries with even larger spending power than the UK can struggle if they over-rely on traditional military technologies and the ways in which those technologies are developed in a time of increasing asymmetric conflict. 

While government has recognised some of this challenge by committing to investment in high-speed boats and new drone technology, there is a danger that these programmes will take too long to rollout and ultimately deliver less value than intended as the government has not committed to significantly improving the technology development and procurement processes that have seen previous MoD new technology projects massively run over budget and only deliver with significant delays.

Finland and Sweden are amongst the countries demonstrating the benefits of taking a Comprehensive Security Framework policy. This would be built on an understanding of the range of modern threats to national security, and the role that more traditional national security institutions such as the armed forces need to take, alongside other public bodies, civil society, and citizens in a coordinated approach to improving protections from the threats that we face. This is the only way we can build national resilience to cope with the many threats that become real.

After two years of dithering following  the publication of its Strategic Defence Review, the questions about this spending announcement are not just around whether the overall amount is or isn't adequate, but actually whether the government is facing up to the scale and nature of the national security threats facing the UK in the decades ahead.

Verdant’s first public event on defence and national security, presenting initial findings from its National Security Panel is hosted by Clive Lewis MP in Committee Room 18, Palace of Westminster, 5-7pm, Tuesday 30 June. 

“By failing to show how the government will properly address these fast-moving challenges, there is a danger that today's government announcement may see several billions spent over the next few years, but with a risk of only marginally improving our country's ability to tackle the threats that we face. That would not only be a tragic waste of public money, but even worse, would risk being a dereliction of government's primary duties to keep our country and every human being in it safe.” Sacha Deshmukh, Mantri Advisory, author of forthcoming Verdant national security white paper

“At Verdant, we think it’s critical that we include citizens on their views of national security, which is why we’ve engaged a National Security Public Participation Panel for people to really dig deep into key policy issues and inform our own recommendations for government.” James Meadway, Co-Director, Verdant

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Notes

  • Verdant’s National Security Panel is a panel of ordinary citizens, chosen by sortition to be broadly representative of the population, and holding a series of structured conversations on national security issues, with expert facilitation as needed. Organised by Verdant Associate and leading public participation expert, Sarah Allan, the panels will provide a broader view of public understanding and concerns around national security than is typically available in current public debates. Verdant will be reporting its findings in autumn.

  • Verdant’s Waste Not report identified at least £1.3bn a year of recoverable wasted expenditure on defence procurement. Currently only 2 of the MOD’s 49 major defence programmes are on time and on-budget. Other recent examples of defence procurement waste include:

    • Warrior Capability Sustainment Programme (development contract awarded October 2011): Intended to modernise one of the Army's family of armoured vehicles with new turrets and digital architecture, the programme was cancelled in 2021 after close to £600 million was spent and no vehicles delivered.

    • Ajax armoured vehicle (manufacturing contract awarded September 2014): Intended to replace Cold War-era reconnaissance platforms, more than a decade after its £5.52bn contract was signed with General Dynamics UK, the Ajax remains unused. The MOD was forced to suspend trials for over a year due to excessive noise and vibration that injured test crews. The programme is now running eight years behind schedule, and the defence procurement minister has ordered a review of Ajax advice given to ministers.

    • Morpheus tactical communications programme (core contract awarded April 2017): Intended to replace the Army’s Bowman network, Morpheus has cost more than £760 million without fielding a working system. Entry into service is now unlikely before 2031, and the core contract has been terminated.

    • E-7 Wedgetail(contract signed March 2019): Intended to replace the RAF’s retired airborne radar fleet, the order was cut from five to three aircraft and delivery slipped by three years. The total cost of the programme has been cut from £3.15bn to £1.26bn.

    • Type 31 frigate (contract awarded November 2019): Designed as a low-cost general-purpose escort, the Type 31 has already slipped from 2029 to 2030, with Babcock, the contractor, booking £190 million in associated losses. Only half the Navy’s fleet of Type 45 destroyers, its core air-defence ships, are operational after a series of significant engine failures.

    • Watchkeeper UAV (contract awarded August 2005): In 2024, the MOD officially announced it was scrapping the Army’s long-running tactical unmanned aerial vehicle programme after eight crashes and over £1.3 billion in sunk costs.

  • Sacha Deshmukh of Manti Advisory is former chief executive of Amnesty International UK and an expert in human rights and international law. His white paper on tackling the UK’s national security challenges will be published by Verdant in autumn 2026.

  • Finland’s “Comprehensive Security Framework” approach to defence and national security reflects the broad scope of national security concerns and covers the “seven vital functions” of “leadership, international and EU activities, defence capability, internal security, economy, infrastructure and security of supply, functional capacity of the population and services, and psychological resilience.” It derives its legitimacy and effectiveness from deliberate engagement with the population. See Thomas Woolmore, National Preparedness Commission, April 2026. https://nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/publications/why-finlands-comprehensive-security-model-is-so-popular-and-why-the-uks-whole-of-society-approach-continues-to-be-limited-in-scope 

James Meadway
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