Photo by Sarah Agnew on Unsplash
Verdant's initial findings: What the Budget means for the fiscal rules, for the climate, for Makerfield (and places like it), for household incomes, and for jobs as AI spreads
Headroom: £14.5 billion in 2029-30, but only £10.3 billion once expected climate damage is factored in. Funding departments to compensate for price rises since the OBR's previous forecast (March 2026) leaves £4.4 billion, and with climate damage calculated at £0.2 billion, however, with a 47% chance of missing the fiscal rule. Under the current fiscal rules, expected climate damage makes austerity more likely.
Climate: more emissions. The Budget's decisions add 58.9 million tonnes of CO2e from 2026-27 to 2031-32. The largest part, 40.9 Mt, comes from Rosebank oil and gas field, which is factored into the OBR’s revenue estimates.
The Makerfield test: a split verdict: gains in 2026-27, losses by 2029-30. The average Makerfield household is +£132 a year in 2026-27 and -£35 in 2029-30. It’s not quite “growth in every postcode”.
Incomes: gains at first, losses later. In 2029-30 the average household is £50 a year worse off from policy decisions (0.1 per cent of income) and 15 per cent of households lose out. In 2029-30 the richest tenth loses most in cash, £318 a year (0.2 per cent of income), mainly through property income.
AI and jobs: If the OBR's own March 2026 'technological displacement' scenario happens, about 513,000 jobs would go by 2029-30, 18.8 per 1,000 employees, concentrated in London and the South-East.
“Today’s Budget was a missed opportunity from the Chancellor to seriously get to grips with the cost of living crisis, and the growing economic risks of climate change. Instead, a package of smaller measures will leave households exposed to forecast price rises - and the national economy at the risk of worsening future climate shocks.”